Modelling COVID-19 effect on the performance of MENA Health-care sector

PurposeThis study models the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of the private health-care sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. This paper aims to address the economic, societal and sustainability of the health-care sector.Design/methodology/approachData were collected from Bloomberg and the sample consists of 534 firm-year observations from 55 firms listed over 2010–2020. The authors apply panel data and control for the country and governance effects.FindingsThe authors found heterogeneous results regarding the three sub-sectors. The pandemic has a negative effect on the accounting and market performances of the "Pharmaceutical companies” and an insignificant impact on "Healthcare Management and Facilities Services.” Moreover, the impact of COVID-19 on health-care firms' performance depends on the country's economic classification and the degree of regulatory and governance frameworks.Research limitations/implicationsFurther studies may consider a larger sample and other regions. It is recommended to address the health-care sector's challenges to invest in new technologies such as "digital twin” and predictive and personalized medicine. It is worth testing model development theory and its effects on speeding up and designing models to ensure the proper functioning and developing mathematics to determine uncertainties in patient data and model predictions.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is novel as it is unique in modeling the impact of COVID-19 on the health-care public companies in the MENA region. The findings pinpoint firms' and countries' heterogeneous impacts on financial and market performances.

Lessons for the Age of Consequences: COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy

Comparative empirical evidence for 22 OECD countries shows that country differences in cumulative mortality impacts of SARS-CoV-2 are caused by weaknesses in public health competences, pre-existing variances in structural socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities, and the presence of fiscal constraints. Remarkably, the (fiscally non-constrained) U.S. and the U.K. stand out, as they experience mortality outcomes similar to those of fiscally-constrained countries. High COVID19 mortality in the U.S. and the U.K. is due to pre-existing socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities, created by the following macroeconomic policy errors: (a) a deadly emphasis on fiscal austerity (which diminished public health capacities, damaged public health and deepened inequalities);(b) an obsessive belief in a trade-off between ‘efficiency' and ‘equity', which is mostly used to justify extreme inequality;(c) a complicit endorsement by mainstream macro of the unchecked power over monetary and fiscal policy-making of global finance and the rentier class;and (d) an unhealthy aversion to raising taxes, which deceives the public about the necessity to raise taxes to counter the excessive liquidity preference of the rentiers and to realign the interests of finance and of the real economy. The paper concludes by outlining a few lessons for a saner macroeconomics.

FAIR TAXATION UNDER THE GLOBAL ANTI-BASE EROSION RULES?

In 2021 the OECD launched the Global Minimum Company Tax to implement the Action 1 of the BEPS Project. This instrument has seen as a good mechanism to prevent company avoiding taxes at the global level and to stop existence of the harmful tax regimes worldwide, as well as a good mechanism to achieve fair taxation in the era of global digitalization. However, the broke-out of the COVID-19 pandemic and, consequently, the close of the national borders, then armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, boost financial crisis and the crises in almost all social and industrial spheres at the global level. Such unwilling trend, between all, has influenced behavior of the companies and the initial optimism of the OECD and other international organizations that the global minimum company tax, at the very end, would end existence of the harmful tax regimes, tax avoidance and unfair taxation, dropped significantly. Therefore, at the very end of the 2022 and the beginning of the 2023, the OECD launched consultation document on tax certainty in the application of the Pillar Two of the global minimum tax known as a GloBE (Global Anti-Base Erosion) Model Rules. This paper deals with mentioned issue and actual problems that the application of the GLoBE rules is faced with.

Effect of Remittance Inflows on External Debt in Developing Countries

This paper analyzes the effect of remittance inflows on external debt in developing countries, by identifying international reserves as a potential transmission channel. Using panel data over the period 1970–2017 and covering 50 low-and middle-income countries worldwide, we find a positive and significant effect of remittance inflows on the external debt-to-GDP ratio. We also find a negative and significant effect of international reserves on external debt. After controlling for international reserves, the effect of remittance inflows on external debt increases;it remains positive and significant. The results suggest that the role of international reserves as a self-insurance mechanism, and the Dutch disease effect related to remittance inflows are at play. In addition, we find negative and significant effects of economic growth and savings-investment gap on external debt. We also find positive and significant effects of the nominal exchange rate and the United States lending interest rate on external debt. We discuss the policy implications of these findings, while highlighting factors that policymakers should focus on for containing external debt in developing countries in the post-COVID-19.

Does the Shield Effect of CSR Work in Crises? Evidence in Korea

This paper investigates the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on shareholders' wealth during market downturn, focusing on the market crash caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermaths. We evaluate the relationship between firms' CSR and stock returns using a sample of 803 firms listed on the Korean stock market. The results of our study reveal that firms' pre-crisis CSR activities do not protect shareholders' wealth during the crisis;in fact, they negatively affected stock returns during the COVID-19 crisis. This finding is consistent across several robustness tests and challenges the prevailing notion that CSR is solely a philanthropic endeavor. This study suggests that firms need to reconsider their CSR approach in order to better align it with shareholders' interest.

Economic policy uncertainty, governance institutions and economic performance in Africa: are there regional differences?

In recent years, the global economy has witnessed several uncertainty-inducing events. However, empirical evidence in Africa on the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on economic activities remains scanty. Besides, the moderating effect of governance institutions on the uncertainty-economic performance relationship in Africa and the likelihood of regional differences in the response of economic activities to EPU on the continent are yet to be investigated. To address these gaps, we applied system GMM and quantile regressions on a panel of forty-seven African countries from 2010 to 2019. We find that while global EPU and EPUs from China, USA and Canada exert considerable influence on economic performance in Africa, the effects of domestic EPU and EPUs from Europe, UK, Japan, and Russia were negligible, suggesting that African economies are resilient to these sources of uncertainty shocks. We also find that governance institutions in Africa are not significantly moderating the uncertainty-economic performance relationship. However, our results highlighted regional differences in the response of economic activities to uncertainty, such that when compared to East and West Africa, economic performance in Central, North and Southern Africa is generally more resilient to global EPU and EPUs from China, USA, Europe and UK. We highlighted the policy implications of these findings.

Two Major Economic Crises in the Early Twenty-First Century and their Impact on Central Bank Independence

Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy measures, including large-scale purchase of government bonds (quantitative easing). The same approach has been taken by CBs in response to the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 even if the characteristics of this crisis differ from the previous one. As a result of both crises, CBs have become major holders of government bonds and de facto – main creditors of governments. Against rapidly deteriorating fiscal balances, CBs have become hostages of fiscal policies, which compromises their independence. Risks to the CB independence also come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist political pressures.

How could a new universal code of conduct prevent and resolve sovereign debt crises? Proposals for design and implementation

In response to the COVID‐19 crisis, government spending around the world has increased significantly and will continue to grow as interest rates rise. In view of protracted and costly sovereign debt restructurings in the previous decades, contractual and noncontractual instruments of the Global Debt Governance‐system have been insufficient to prevent and to resolve sovereign debt crisis. While statutory and comprehensive approaches to resolve sovereign debt crises lack the political support such as an insolvency procedure for states incomprehensive contractual approaches including collective action clauses (CACs) cannot fully secure a comprehensive debt resolution. Codes of conduct could constitute an essential instrument to contribute to preventing and resolving sovereign debt crises. There are two main impediments for establishing and adopting such codes of conduct effectively. First, a range of codes of conduct with different institutional settings and principles have been established − and partly implemented − including those of the Institute of International Finance, the United Nations, the G20, the IMF and the OECD. However, differing institutional settings do not contribute to preventing or effectively resolving debt crises when the actors concerned apply different codes of conduct. We suggest a new universal code of conduct in which the elements of the various proposals made by the public and private sectors would be combined. Second, the global economic governance structure lacks incentives for creditors and debtors to adhere to this new universal code of conduct. This paper proposes measures providing incentives for creditors and debtors to apply the nonstatutory code of conduct.

Adoption of FinTech services amidst COVID-19 pandemic: empirical evidence from Assam

PurposeThe paper intends to comprehend the pattern of usage of FinTech services among bank customers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper also examines the factors influencing the adoption of FinTech services by using the constructs from the technology acceptance model (TAM) together with highlighting the issues faced in using FinTech services in Assam.Design/methodology/approachThe research is empirical in nature. Data have been collected from 1,066 prime earners of the households having a bank account.FindingsThere has been an upsurge in the use of FinTech services in the area of study. Apart from government and private service employees, businessmen, self-employed professionals, many daily-wage earners and agriculturists have also experienced an increase in their frequency of usage of FinTech services thereby making technology-based financial services an indispensable tool in enhancing access, improving inclusivity in the times of crisis and aftermath. Government support, trust, perceived usefulness (PU), attitude and social influence have a positive influence on FinTech adoption;however, perceived risks impact respondents' trust towards FinTech services thereby requiring necessary measures to evaluate organizations' preparedness to deal with cyber threats.Originality/valueThe paper provides insight into the factors impacting the adoption of FinTech services to stimulate superior connectivity infrastructure, robust security measures and maintaining financial stability with adequate supervisory and monitoring regulations to enhance trust towards FinTech services during the crisis and aftermath.

Reevaluating the risk minimization utility of Islamic stocks and bonds (Sukuk) in international financial markets

We examine the risk minimization utility of Islamic stock and Sukuk (bond) indices by studying their linkages against traditional global counterparts. We first employ an asymmetric power ARCH-based ADCC model on an extended dataset employed by Kenourgios et al. (2016). Our sample ranges from July 2007 to June 2021 covering the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC), and the COVID-19 pandemic. Econometric tests suggest strong evidence of coupling in the bulk of Islamic equity indices. A handful of emerging market indices constitute exceptions. Qualitatively similar results emerge from time–frequency analysis via wavelet tools, revealing pervasive coupling in both returns and volatility series. The linkages are scale-dependent in only a few pairs. In contrast, Sukuk indices are uncoupled from their global fixed income counterparts and relevant risky debt portfolios. In sum, the risk-return characteristics of Islamic equities (especially in developed economies) remain coupled to major global benchmarks and therefore are unlikely to appeal as safe haven candidates. The converse applies to Sukuk, which promises potential portfolio diversification benefits and safe haven status in ‘normal' and crisis periods.

Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Investment Behavior of DIIs and FIIs on Indian Debt and Equity Markets

This paper aims to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the investment behaviours of both Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) and Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in the Indian debt and equity markets. The study is based on the daily time-series data from January 01,2015, to June 03, 2020. The study has constructed three Structural Vector Auto Regression dynamic models to compare the investment behaviors of FIIs and DIIs in both pre-and post-pandemic periods. The results indicate that the Institutional Investors' activities do not significantly impact the equity returns in the Indian markets, which has remained so in the wake of Covid-19. The debt purchases and sales for the DIIs are relatively more inelastic to market returns and reflect the risk-averse investment attitude of DIIs because of the negligible impact of Covid-19. There is a drop in the risk appetite of the FIIs due to a rise in the share of debt holdings in their portfolio in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Relationship Between Financial Indicators and Financial Intermediaries' Stock Price Volatility Listed on the BM&FBOVESPA Index in the Crisis Period of 2008 and 2020 (Covid-19): GCG

The study goal was to verify the relationship among financial indicators and intermediaries' volatility stock price listed on the BM&FBovespa Index in the crisis period from 2008 and 2020 (COVID-19). The methods used for analysis were Spearman's correlation, multiple linear regression, and Test T. The analyzed period refers to the year 2008, the second semester of 2019 and the first semester of 2020, which include the periods before and during the crises of 2008 and 2020. The results found show that only the indicator of the assets total turnover rate has a significant relationship with the stock price volatility.Alternate :O estudo tem como objetivo verificar a relação entre os indicadores com a volatilidade das ações das intermediadoras financeiras listadas no Índice BM&FBovespa no período das crises de 2008 e 2020 (COVID-19). Os métodos utilizados para análise foram de correlação de Spearman, regressão linear múltipla e Teste T. O período analisado refere-se ao ano de 2008, segundo semestre de 2019 e primeiro semestre de 2020, onde englobam os períodos pré e durante as crises de 2008 e 2020. Os resultados encontrados apontam que apenas o indicador taxa total de rotatividade dos ativos possui relação significativa com a volatilidade do preço das ações.Alternate :El estudio tiene como objetivo verificar la relación entre los indicadores y la volatilidad de las acciones de los intermediarios financieros listados en el Índice BM&FBovespa en el período de las crisis de 2008 y 2020 (COVID-19). Los métodos utilizados para el análisis fueron la correlación de Spearman, la regresión lineal múltiple y la prueba T. El período analizado se refiere al año 2008, la segunda mitad de 2019 y la primera mitad de 2020, que incluyen los períodos antes y durante las crisis de 2008 y 2020. Los resultados encontrados indican que solo el indicador de tasa de rotación de activos totales tiene una relación significativa con la volatilidad del precio de las acciones.

The complex evolution of information quality improvement in competitive market

Information is important market resource. High-quality information is beneficial to increase enterprise's reputation and reduce consumer's verification cost. This paper constructs a two-layer dynamic model, in which enterprises simultaneously conduct price and information game. The goal of profit maximization integrates two types of games into one system. The complex evolution of the two-layer system are studied by equilibrium analysis, stability analysis, bifurcation diagram, entropy and Lyapunov exponent. It is found that improving the information quality through regulations will increase involution and reduce stability of the market. Then, the block chain technology is introduced into the model for improving information quality of the market. It is found that increasing enterprises' willingness to adopt block chain can improve the information quality quickly and effectively, and that is verified by entropy value. Therefore, the application and promotion of new technologies are more effective than exogenous regulations for improving information quality in market.

Shifting Landscapes in Development Finance: The Cautionary Tale of a New Debt Trap

The taxonomy of external financing options available to emerging market economies (EMEs) has changed markedly over the last decade. This chapter examines the drivers of this global phenomenon where EMEs have become increasingly dependent on international commercial borrowings and on new lenders such as China. The growing reliance on these new forms of finance elevates debt distress risks to EMEs from exogenous financial and economic shocks arising from trade wars, geopolitical tensions and unexpected events such as the coronavirus pandemic. The chapter concludes that new financial mechanisms to deal with EME debt distress have fallen short of expectations. Multilateral efforts to provide a clearer pathway for debtor governments through a resilient and sustained global debt resolution framework is now an urgent priority. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

The mean reversion/persistence of financial cycles: Empirical evidence for 24 countries worldwide

Research background: The globalization trend has inevitably enhanced the connectivity of global financial markets, making the cyclicality of financial activities and the spread of market imbalances have received widespread attention, especially after the global financial crisis. Purpose of the article: To reduce the negative effects of the contagiousness of the financial cycles, it is necessary to study the persistence of financial cycles and carve out the total connectedness, spillover paths, and sources of risks on a global scale. In addition, understanding the relationship between the financial cycle and economic development is an important way to prevent financial crises. Methods: This paper adopts the nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) model to extract cyclical and phase characteristics of financial cycles based on 24 countries during 1971Q1?2015Q4, covering developed and developing countries, the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In addition, the frequency connectedness approach is used to measure the connectedness of financial cycles and the relationship between the global financial cycle and the global economy. Findings & value added: The analysis reveals that aggregate financial cycles persist for 13.3 years for smoothed and 8.7 years for unsmoothed on average. The national financial cycles are asynchronous and exhibit more prolonged expansions and faster contractions. The connectedness of financial cycles is highly correlated with systemic crises and contributes to the persistence and harmfulness of shocks. It is mainly driven by short-term components and exhibits more pronounced interconnectedness within regions than across regions. During the financial crisis, the global financial cycle movements precede and are longer than the business fluctuations. Based on the study, some policy implications are presented. This paper emphasizes the impact of systemic crises on the persistence of financial cycles and their connectedness, which contributes to refining research related to the coping mechanisms of financial crises.

Do the macro and global economic factors drive the nonperforming loans in GCC economies?

PurposeThe current study aims to investigate the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the GCC economies during the period spanning 2000 to 2018. It also examines whether the worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008, which brought the issue of non–performing loans to the greater attention of academics and policymakers, had a substantial impact on NPLs in this region.Design/methodology/approachThe sample consists of 53 conventional banks from GCC countries, and the basic data for the study is obtained from various sources such as Bankscope, IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank and Chicago Board of Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. The estimations were done by dynamic panel data regression modeling using system generalized methods of moments.FindingsThe findings reveal that both, the non-oil real GDP growth rate and inflation have favorable effects on NPLs. On the other hand, domestic credit to the private sector and the volatility index have an adverse effect on NPLs. Furthermore, the period-wise analysis shows that the relevance and significance of the determinants of NPLs vary between the precrisis and postcrisis periods. It is also reflected through the intercept dummy, which is found to be significant, indicating that the financial crisis, as a global economic factor, had a significant impact on NPLs. A number of robustness tests are applied, which indicate that the results are mostly robust and consistent in terms of the significance of the explanatory variables and the direction of their relationship with the dependent variable.Practical implicationsPolicymakers and bank authorities must strive to maintain a healthy economy and implement macroprudential policies to improve the financial stability of banks and reduce credit risk.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is likely the first study that empirically investigates the influence of the financial crisis on NPLs in the context of GCC economies. In addition, the research spans 19 years to produce more conclusive results.

Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty, and green finance: a case of China

This study investigates the long- and short-run effects of crude oil price (COP) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on China's green bond index (GBI) using the quantile autoregressive distributed lag model. The empirical results show that COP and EPU produce a significant positive and negative influence on GBI in the long-run across most quantiles, respectively, but their short-run counterparts are opposite direction and only significant in higher quantiles. Thus, major contributions are made accordingly and shown in the following aspects. The findings emphasise the importance of understanding how COP and EPU affect China's green bond market for the first time. In addition, both the long- and short-run effects are captured, but long-run shocks primarily drive the green bond market. Finally, time- and quantile-varying analyses are adopted to explain the nexus between COP and EPU to GBI, which considers not only different states of the bond market but also events that occur in different time periods. Some detailed policies, such as a unified and effective green bond market, an early warning mechanism of oil price fluctuation, and prudent economic policy adjustments, are beneficial for stabilising the green finance market.

HERDING BEHAVIOR IN FRONTIER NORDIC COUNTRIES

This paper investigates herding behavior of investors in three frontier Nordic countries from July 1,2002 until July 30, 2021, under different market conditions and during three crises that occurred in this period. As estimation methods, we use both OLS and quantile regression and determine that both up and down market, high and low volatility induce a weak herding behavior for at least one quantile in almost all Nordic countries examined, except for Latvia. At the same time, we find that crises determine a more prominent herding behavior in Nordic countries, but do not influent the behavior of investors from Latvia, that tend to remain rational even in stressful conditions.

Influence of the global environment on capital flows in the London Office market

PurposeThe London office market is a major destination of international real estate capital and arguably the epicentre of international real estate investment over the past decade. However, the increase in global uncertainties in recent years due to socio-economic and political trends highlights the need for more insights into the behaviour of international real estate capital flows. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of the global and domestic environment on international real estate investment activities within the London office market over the period 2007–2017.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts an auto-regressive distributed lag approach using the real capital analytics (RCA) international real estate investment data. The RCA data analyses quarterly cross-border investment transactions within the central London office market for the period 2007–2017.FindingsThe study provides insights on the critical differences in the influence of the domestic and global environment on cross-border investment activities in this office market, specifically highlighting the significance of the influence of the global environment in the long run. In the short run, the influence of factors reflective of both the domestic and international environment are important indicating that international capital flows into the London office market is contextualised by the interaction of different factors.Originality/valueThe authors provide a holistic study of the influence of both the domestic and international environment on cross-border investment activities in the London office market, providing more insights on the behaviour of global real estate capital flows.

Leveraging Digital Financial Inclusion: How G7's "Build Back Better" Can Promote Gender Equality in Africa

Women, the rural poor, young people, and other vulnerable groups should not have to bear the brunt of the pandemic's socio-economic implications.6 First introduced in Kenya in 2007, the digital payment service "M-Pesa" has grown rapidly, becoming the most common mode of payment for goods and services in the East African region.7 Basking in the service's success facilitating payment transactions, Kenya has risen to the top of regional rankings in both the supply of mobile money services and bank account ownership (Figure 1). According to the 2017 Findex Report, the global trend of bank account ownership in middle to low-income countries stood at 63 percent in 2017. [End Page 79] smartphones and digital literacy are associated with poverty and are the main barriers to getting online.14 According to Research ICT Africa's Retail Africa Mobile Pricing (RAMP) Index, price is another barrier, since data is still quite expensive in many African countries.15 Financial inclusion during COVID-19 According to an International Finance Institution (IFC) study of thirteen countries in sub-Saharan Africa, women-owned micro, small, and medium-sized firms (MSMEs) were most adversely affected by COVID-19, due to their smaller size and high concentration of ownership.16 Many of these female owners indicated that their companies had lost more than half of their revenues and that they had experienced an increase in the cost of their operations due to the pandemic. According to the Research ICT Africa's phone survey,19 58 percent of those who received the facility were individuals and women-owned small and medium-sized enterprises (WOSME).20 This demonstrates that women, particularly those working in the